Has the bleeding stopped for the pound?

The UK’s concentration in financial services has compounded the problems for its economy and currency.

Concerns over the global crisis remain the key driver in the foreign exchange market as investors witness the continued dete-rioration of economies around the industrialized world. In February, the British pound stabilized somewhat vs. the U.S. dollar after dramatic losses in recent months. Looking back to what seems now like a lifetime ago, in November 2007 the pound/dollar pair (GBP/USD) touched a high of $2.1159 (the highest price since 1981) and was still trading above $2.000 in July 2008 before plunging to a late-January 2009 low of $1.3500 (the lowest price since 1985), and more recently con-solidating in the $1.4100-1.5000 range.

The British economy was especially hard hit during the fall months thanks to the UK’s strong reliance on banking and other financial services. Citing data from the British Consular Office, Charmaine Buskas, senior economic strategist at TD Securities in Toronto says, “10.7 percent of UK gross domestic product (GDP) comes from financial services. It accounts for one in 30 jobs. They had the same troubles as everyone else, but amplified and magnified.” Like the U.S., the UK also suffered a crash in its over-leveraged housing market at the same time the global financial crisis began to hit.

“The UK is suffering more than some because of its financial and housing sector exposure,” says Stephen Webster, chief European economist at 4CAST Inc. GDP freefall Webster says the UK’s economic situation is “dire in every sense.” “Economically, the UK officially slipped into recession as of the fourth quarter 2008,” he says. “Credit conditions remain tight and confidence weak.” Ruth Stroppiana, chief interna-tional economist at Moody’s Economy.com adds: “The ongoing lending logjam and the associated adverse impact on the availability of credit to households and [corporations] will take a heavy toll on the economy. Real GDP is expected to sink by almost 4 percent from peak to trough, almost double the 2-percent contraction of the early 1990s, but less than the nearly 6-percent fall in the early 1980s following the ‘winter of discontent.’

Difference Between Forex and Stock

1. The Forex market has a lot of advantages compare to stock market: A Forex trader could make profit through the market no matter if it is bearish and bullish which is different from the capital market, Forex has no strict regulation in speculation, no matter whether it is a long-term or a short-term transaction there is still a hidden profit, moreover, Forex market is a double-transaction market which means Forex traders could make profit through both upward and downward trend.

2. Forex traders could obtain a much larger transaction compared to the stock market, through the Forex trading, Forex traders could obtain 100 times larger transaction compared to the stock market. According to the present US situation, if a Forex trader invests $1,000 in the stock market, the trader may obtain $2,000 of stock domination property with a proportion of 2:1, but through Forex trading, a Forex trader can do transaction with a proportion up to 100:1.
Forex trader may make profit from the ordinary news, like the interest rate change, Forex market is closely related to various countries' politic, economy and culture, Forex traders could also obtain profit from other kinds of news, for example interest rate level change, will influence the interest of the Forex deposit.

3. Forex traders could do 24 hours trading. The stock market can only be traded during daytime at a specific time, generally from 9:30a.m. to 4:00p.m.. If you too have your own full time job, then you will face the dilemma - either to give up your full time job or forgo the trading opportunity. But Forex market can be traded 5 days a week and 24 hours a day, Forex traders can trade during their free time which is normally at night after working hour.

4. If a trader analyze based on technical analysis, Forex trading would be much more suitable for such traders because the Forex market has a very large trading volume. Currently the Forex market has daily trading volume of 190 billion Dollar, such giant market will completely digest a fore trader's transaction cash, under such situation the accuracy of the technical analysis would be much higher then any financial market, the chances of using technical analysis to make profit would be much more higher.

5. In the stock market there are hundred and thousand kinds of stocks, then choosing stock will be a very difficult matter. But in the Forex market, the currency combination is extremely limited, this may enable Forex traders to concentrate on these currencies combination, and could follow the trend quickly.

Forex Forecasting

This article provides insight into the two major methods of analysis used to forecast the behavior of the Forex market. Technical analysis and fundamental analysis differ greatly, but both can be useful forecast tools for the Forex trader. They have the same goal - to predict a price or movement. The technician studies the effect while the fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement. Many successful traders combine a mixture of both approaches for superior results.
Technical analysisTechnical analysis is a method of predicting price movements and future market trends by studying charts of past market action. Technical analysis is concerned with what has actually happened in the market, rather than what should happen and takes into account the price of instruments and the volume of trading, and creates charts from that data to use as the primary tool. One major advantage of technical analysis is that experienced analysts can follow many markets and market instruments simultaneously.
Technical analysis is built on three essential principles:
1. Market action discounts everything! This means that the actual price is a reflection of everything that is known to the market that could affect it, for example, supply and demand, political factors and market sentiment. However, the pure technical analyst is only concerned with price movements, not with the reasons for any changes.
2. Prices move in trends Technical analysis is used to identify patterns of market behavior that have long been recognized as significant. For many given patterns there is a high probability that they will produce the expected results. Also, there are recognized patterns that repeat themselves on a consistent basis.
3. History repeats itself Forex chart patterns have been recognized and categorized for over 100 years and the manner in which many patterns are repeated leads to the conclusion that human psychology changes little over time.
Forex charts are based on market action involving price. There are five categories in Forex technical analysis theory:
* Indicators (oscillators, e.g.: Relative Strength Index (RSI) * Number theory (Fibonacci numbers, Gann numbers) * Waves (Elliott wave theory) * Gaps (high-low, open-closing) * Trends (following moving average).
Some major technical analysis tools are described below:

History of Forex Market

An overview into the historical evolution of the foreign exchange market

This article will follow the historical roots of the international currency trading from the days of the gold exchange, through the Bretton Woods Agreement, to its current setting.

The Gold exchange period and the Bretton Woods Agreement.

Prior to Bretton Woods, the gold exchange standard -- paramount between 1876 and World War I -- ruled over the international economic system. Under the gold exchange, currencies experienced a new era of stability because they were supported by the price of gold.

However, the gold exchange standard had a weakness of boom-bust patterns. As a country's economy strengthened, its imports would increase until the country ran down its gold reserves, which were required to support its currency. As a result, the money supply would diminish, interest rates escalate and economic activity slowed to the point of recession. Ultimately, prices of commodities would hit bottom, appearing attractive to other nations, who would rush in and amid a buying frenzy inject the economy with gold until it increased its money supply, driving down interest rates and restoring wealth into the economy. Such boom-bust patterns abounded throughout the gold standard until World War I temporarily discontinued trade flows and the free movement of gold.

The Bretton Woods Agreement, established in 1944, fixed national currencies against the dollar, and set the dollar at a rate of USD 35 per ounce of gold. The agreement was aimed at establishing international monetary steadiness by preventing money from taking flight across countries, and to curb speculation in the international currency market. Participating countries agreed to try to maintain the value of their currency within a narrow margin against the dollar and an equivalent rate of gold as needed. As a result, the dollar gained a premium position as a reference currency, reflecting the shift in global economic dominance from Europe to the USA. Countries were prohibited from devaluing their currency to benefit their foreign trade and were only allowed to devalue their currency by less than 10%. The great volume of international Forex trade led to massive movements of capital, which were generated by post-war construction during the 1950s, and this movement destabilized the foreign exchange rates established in Bretton Woods.

The year 1971 heralded the abandonment of the Bretton Woods in that the US dollar would no longer be exchangeable into gold. By 1973, the forces of supply and demand controlled major industrialized nations' currencies, which now floated more freely across nations. Prices were floated daily, with volumes, speed and price volatility all increasing throughout the 1970s, and new financial instruments, market deregulation and trade liberalization emerged.

The onset of computers and technology in the 1980s accelerated the pace of extending the market continuum for cross-border capital movements through Asian, European and American time zones. Transactions in foreign exchange increased intensively from nearly billion a day in the 1980s, to more than $1.9 trillion a day two decades later.

Forex Trading- The four key things to learn

Do you want to be a Forex Trader, a forex trading millionaire? Well then you have 4 hurdles that you must overcome and then Forex trading success is all yours.

Now we sill show you what the hurdles are and more importantly how to overcome them and then your in control of your own forex trading success. Lets look at some interesting statistics 95% of Forex traders lose money and most follow a robot or sure fire system, where they think their going to win with no effort and they lose. Think about if it was as simply as turning on a machine to make money, one would you sell it? No! If it was that easy everyone would be successful, not 95% fail. Success normally comes at a price, education which equates to spending time to learn and which gives you knowledge.

So if you want the success see the hurdles then overcome them.

1. Education= Knowledge, you don’t always have to work hard but sometimes smarter Firstly almost anyone can make money from trading Forex but most fall for the it’s easy, or the numerous myths and one of the commonest errors is that hard work guarantees success - it doesn’t. In forex trading you don’t get rewarded for effort, you get rewarded for being right and that’s it. Forex trading is very black and white, either you are right or you are wrong. There is a saying though the Market is never wrong. You can learn everything you need to know in a few weeks and get on the road to Forex trading success and the reason for this is Forex trading is simple to learn if you do it the right way. Understand the market and what is required.

2. Find a Method that works and Stick it-

So many people come up with systems that start working and then they want to change it, make it better, does it get any better than working, than making you money? Isn’t this what we all want to achieve. So the first point to keep in mind is simple Forex trading strategies work better than complex ones and the reason is you are dealing with an odds based market and simple systems are more robust than complicated ones, with fewer elements to break.

Point Two- Throw away the Crystal Ball and Stop trying to Predict the Market!

This is simply hoping or guessing and you won’t be rewarded for that. You should trade the reality of price change on a chart and a great method to use is breakout methodology. It’s simple to understand, easy to learn and makes huge profits. So many people get in losing trades and then they become hope traders, I hope it goes up, wrong if you hope you know you should cut the trade and move on

3. Can’t Pick a Winning- Dealing with Failure- Deal with failure well and you can become a success

This is the hard part of Forex trading, forget all you have read from vendors of forex robots and sure fire systems that losses can always be small and last just a few days, this is not the reality. The reality is the market is going to hand you losses for weeks on end at some point and its in this period, you need to keep your losses small and keep trading your trading signals, as the market takes your money and makes you look a fool. You need to trade through these periods until you hit profits again. Think it’s easy? You probably haven’t traded, its tough to keep going and to do this you need the following key trait.

4. Golden Key to Success- Discipline- Stick your rules

To trade through losing periods, you must have the discipline to keep going - it’s the key to success. If you think about it, if you don’t have the discipline to rigidly apply your system, you don’t have one. You are a hope trade and sure enough you will go broke. Discipline is not easy, but is certainly worth learning. The way to achieve discipline is through the right Forex education and confidence in what you’re doing and the courage to apply your method.

Anyone Can Win Become a Winner

Anyone can win at Forex trading if they get the right education and overcome the above obstacles and when you have done this you could be making big Forex profits and earning a great second or even life changing income, in around 30 minutes a day. Or you can find a great forex broker that can help make you money, if you are looking for a Forex Broker then the CFD FX REPORT has recently researched Forex Brokers and have come up with who they believe to be the Best Forex Broker in the market.